How It Started on 2024-10-10

Elon promised that the robotaxi, named Cybercab, would be ready and available in two years from now (source: the Verge, one of the few news sites that still employs journalists with functioning brain cells). I’m generous, I will give him until end of December 2026. The second claim he made was that it would cost under $30,000.

How I See It Going

Not going to happen. Will not be ready by 2026 and will cost more than $30,000.

How It Started on 2024-07-28

Elon previously claimed he would reveal the robotaxi on August 8th, 2024, but backpedaled during the earnings call.

How I See It Going

I was wrong the first time. I thought he would present something on August 8th, but it did not happen. I don’t know what’s going to happen in October, but don’t expect a robotaxi that is actually ready for full-scale deployment beyond what Waymo is currently doing.

How It Actually Went on 2024-10-12

Yes, Elon announced a robotaxi on October. He made some sort of demo that raised a lot of questions. He made the typical list of bombastic promises that he is known for, so many that I will not bother tracking them all.

I will, however, add two of his promises to this blog: 1/ that the robotaxi will cost $30,000 and 2/ that it will be ready in two years from now.

How It Started on 2024-04-05

On Monday April 8, 2024, Elon said that AI will be smarter than any human around the end of next year (next year being 2025).

I am not making this shit up, here is a reputable source: Ars Technica

He is also one week too late for April fools.

How I See It Going

No. AI as it is today can be faster than humans. It can be more accurate than humans in specific use cases. It is not, however, smarter than humans.

How It Started on 2024-04-05

On April 5, 2024, Elon posted a Tweet on Xitter saying that Tesla will reveal its robotaxi on August 8th. He did not mention which year, but everyone makes the assumption it is 2024. Source: The Verge

How I See It Going

Yes, Elon will present something on August 8th, 2024. Tesla has a recorded history of doctoring demo videos, so it is definitely possible to present a product on August 8th. Elon did not promise it would actually work on August 8th, 2024, so my first bet is that yes he will present some sort of robotaxi on said date. My second bet is that the product will be presented as being in beta. My third bet is that it will never get out of beta.

How It Actually Went on 2024-07-28

It’s not August yet, and Elon already pushed back the date of the announcement to October. Somehow, I’m sure people will say it’s good for Tesla. Source: Fortune

How It Started on 2023-10-20

At the end of October 2023, Elon Musk said that it would blow his mind if they don’t have X’s payment system rolled out by the end of 2024. Not just a payment system, but your entire financial life. The nugget: he wants it to be a “high-yield money market account.” (which means the potential to be a high-loss account, you cannot have high-yield without high-risk) Source: Ars Technica

How I See It Going

Why would a smart person give his money to a company that doesn’t pay its bills? Because there are a lot of people who are not smart. And Musk wants it to be a high-yield account, which basically means that you will gamble on some shady market with all your money. Sure, go ahead, make my day. I think even if Musk manages to get something going, he will face hurdles from regulators, and I hope so before he loses all the money of a few not smart people. So my bet is he will fail to deliver and blame his failure on regulators, but in reality it will be because his system is a shoddy piece of shit.